SARAH MCCAMMON, HOST:
The Trump administration's immigration crackdown appears to be having a noticeable impact on U.S. population trends. Growth in the population slowed dramatically last year, according to new figures from the U.S. Census Bureau, and if that shift continues, it could have major implications for the economy. Luke Pardue is the policy director at the nonpartisan Aspen Institute's Economic Strategy Group, and he joins me now to explain. Welcome.
LUKE PARDUE: Thank you for having me.
MCCAMMON: As you look at this new data from the Census Bureau, what jumps out at you?
PARDUE: You know, you look at just what is in this report, and we see a sharp slowdown in population growth compared to last year. Population growth actually grew by about half the pace that it did from 2023 to mid-2024, and that was driven in large part by a decline in immigration.
MCCAMMON: Yeah. If these trends continue - reduced immigration and fewer births - what does the country look like in the future?
PARDUE: I mean, a future in which we have declining fertility, reduced immigration is one in which the U.S. is both shrinking, or eventually shrinking, and is older. And that has significant implications. I mean, I think that is one of the most overlooked long-term economic headwinds that the U.S. is facing. Think about the federal debt that's driven in large part by Social Security, by Medicare. The number of workers that will support retirees in the future is expected to decline, just because the U.S. population is becoming older. There are fewer children. There's fewer immigrants coming in to work. As the population becomes older, they're working longer. They're holding on to their jobs, and there's fewer opportunities for younger people to advance in their careers. And so these population trends are going to dramatically reshape basically every facet of the U.S. economy.
MCCAMMON: I want to get a sense of just how significant this trend could be. I mean, do you think that lower immigration numbers could become so significant that it could actually reshape public opinion about immigration policy as some of these impacts of overall population decline or slowed growth start to show up?
PARDUE: Immigration, specifically in local communities - they pay taxes. They consume goods and services. They contribute to the economy. And I think as we start to see the real economic impacts of a decline in immigration, we'll start to possibly see a change in the way that immigration policy is viewed in the country.
MCCAMMON: Is immigration in the long-term going to be a solution to dealing with some of the economic challenges that flow from lower birth rates? Or will lower birth rates worldwide lead to lower immigration rates eventually in the U.S.?
PARDUE: Yeah. And I think that's a great point because, you know, often, folks look to immigration as that counterbalance, and it has played a role counterbalancing the decline in natural population growth in the U.S. But that's not really a sustainable policy because, as you say, fertility around the world, and especially in high-income countries, has been falling. In fact, the U.S. is actually a little bit behind the curve - we should say - at a better spot in terms of our birth rate than other high-income countries. Right now, the total fertility rate in the U.S. is 1.6. That's below the total fertility rate of 2.1 but is actually in a better spot compared to say, South Korea where it's 0.7 or Japan where it's 1.2. And you can kind of go through many of these other countries and see similar numbers.
And so, you know, we've kind of been able to be a magnet for talent and to bring folks into the country, which has counterbalanced the decline in natural population growth, but that's not going to last forever. And so we need to think about ways within the country to both deal with challenges that are going to come from a decline in population growth, and then perhaps think about ways that, you know, we might reverse these population trends within the U.S.
MCCAMMON: Luke Pardue is the policy director at the Aspen Institute's Economic Strategy Group. Thanks for your time.
PARDUE: Thank you.
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