MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
The U.S. is pressing ahead with a military buildup that puts it in position to strike Iran. President Trump is sending mixed messages, hinting of a possible attack while also talking about negotiations. In a few minutes, we'll hear from an analyst at a group working to prevent war about the prospects of avoiding a larger conflict. But we're going to start with NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre to tell us more about the American military's presence in the region. Good morning, Greg.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Michel.
MARTIN: So just how much military hardware has the U.S. moved into the region?
MYRE: Well, there's a U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Lincoln, in the region, as well as multiple additional ships and dozens of warplanes. And this is above and beyond what the U.S. has based there on a permanent basis. This is a significant buildup. It certainly gives President Trump the capability of military action. But based on the signals we're getting, the U.S. has not moved all the pieces into place at this point.
The U.S. would need to be prepared on two main fronts. First, offensive capabilities to hit Iran for a sustained period if Trump chooses that option. And then second, defensive capabilities to protect U.S. troops and military bases and other U.S. targets in the region. And of course, the U.S. has helped defend Israel in recent rounds of fighting. That will be part of the calculation as well. Trump has been noncommittal, saying things like, let's see what happens, but he also drops hints of a possible deal, maybe on nuclear issues. But so far, no talks have been announced.
MARTIN: What would the goal of a U.S. attack on Iran be?
MYRE: Yeah. Trump hasn't said, but there's several possibilities. One is to go after Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He's 86, but he would be a hard target. And he could be replaced by another clerical figure, so you just wouldn't topple the entire theocratic regime just by killing him. The U.S. could go after the Iranian security forces, like the Revolutionary Guards. They took part in that brutal crackdown against protesters last month. But you would expect them to survive U.S. airstrikes. The U.S. could also hit Iran's nuclear facilities, which it did last June in conjunction with Israel. And Iran's nuclear program was set back, but it's never been clear by how much.
MARTIN: What is Iran saying?
MYRE: So Ayatollah Khamenei spoke Sunday, and that turned into a stream of social media post. One of them said, quote, "the Americans should know if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war." Iran's military responded last June with a barrage of missiles and drones aimed at Israel, and it also fired a symbolic missile strike at a U.S. military base in Qatar. So Iran's arsenal was reduced in last summer's fighting. The question is, to what extent has it been rebuilt? You'd certainly expect Iran to strike back, or it may also call on proxies in other Middle East countries. But we don't know how powerful or sustained that response might be.
MARTIN: Is the rest of the region seeming to prepare for a possible U.S. attack? And if so, how?
MYRE: Yeah. Michel, we're certainly seeing a lot of anxiety and some reluctance about a U.S. attack. It would definitely oil the region and perhaps destabilize other areas where the U.S. is trying to bring calm. The U.S., for example, was to move to stage 2 of the Gaza ceasefire plan, and yet Israel would almost certainly be drawn into any renewed conflict with Iran. Also, Saudi Arabia has reservations about a U.S. strike. The country's defense minister was in Washington, meeting with administration officials on Friday to spell out its concerns. You know, one example is it doesn't want the U.S. using its airspace. So in short, this wouldn't just be the U.S. against Iran. Others would be involved, with unpredictable outcomes.
MARTIN: That is NPR's Greg Myre. Greg, thank you.
MYRE: Sure thing, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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