MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We wondered how President Trump's comments about taking Cuba landing among people who probably think about life in Cuba more than most people - in other words, Cuban Americans. We called Eduardo Gamarra for his take. He studies the views of Cuban Americans and the history of the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba. He's a professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University, where he founded the Latino Public Opinion Forum. He's been a consultant to the U.S. government and to leaders elsewhere in the Americas, and he's with us now. Professor Gamarra, good morning.
EDUARDO GAMARRA: Good morning. Thank you for having me.
MARTIN: Well, thanks for coming. So obviously, no community is a monolith. But do you have a sense of how Cuban Americans on the whole are reacting to what President Trump is saying?
GAMARRA: Well, it's an interesting range of opinions. For example, if you look at the Cuban leadership, which has generally rejected any kind of conversations with the Cuban regime, some of them have even expressed surprise that Marco Rubio, who has always been opposed to any kind of dialogue with Cuba - in fact, the dialogue that the Obama administration held is usually pointed to as something not to be done. Yet today this is what the Trump administration is doing, is it's engaged in deep dialogues with the regime. And so that's created a rather ambivalent sentiment in the community - some who are saying, well, weren't we always against dialogue and just simply for maximum pressure and no regime change? And yet at the - on the whole, I think this is an interesting moment because there is a great amount of expectation that perhaps finally now there will be a change in Cuba. What kind of change there will be - of course, that's subject to debate still.
MARTIN: Well, you know, Republican Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida said the regime in Havana wouldn't survive the remainder of Trump's term. But again, predictions that the end of Cuba's communist regime is near are nothing new. Do you think there's something different about this moment?
GAMARRA: Yeah. I mean, the - clearly, the geopolitical moment has changed dramatically. We're no longer in the '60s with the Soviet Union pointing missiles at the United States. There is no Soviet Union. And secondly, there's no longer a Venezuela that was supplying Cuba with oil. And so as the secretary of state has said, Cuba has lost the subsidies that it enjoyed, and now it has an economy that is really subject. Now there is a blockade of Cuba, and that blockade in the recent months has really converted Cuba into, really, an economy that is no longer sustainable. It no longer has the - any energy whatsoever, and that translates into a profound social crisis. And then perhaps for the first time, we're seeing a regime that is also losing its capacity to carry out oppression - right? - which is really probably the only thing that it had left. But now we're seeing increasing demonstrations and the possibility then that Cubans on the island might be strong enough to, in fact, produce some kind of change at the - in the leadership.
MARTIN: But I'm just trying to understand the - if there were a scenario similar to Venezuela, say, where the president is removed, but the regime stays in place...
GAMARRA: Right.
MARTIN: ...And there was conceived to be - perceived to be an opposition candidate who had the credibility and the support of the people, but the Trump administration is not supporting that person - they are supporting the person who was a part of that regime - how - if a scenario like that were to unfold, how do you think that...
GAMARRA: Well, the...
MARTIN: ...That would land...
GAMARRA: Yeah.
MARTIN: ...Among Cuban Americans?
GAMARRA: Well, the real scenario is the Delcy scenario, right? You overthrow the dictator, but you, in essence, maintain the regime in place and govern with the dictators, right? I think that scenario is a very live one for Cuba as well. In fact, the negotiations that Marco Rubio has been having is with people that belong to the regime. And the idea, that part of the arrangement, is not very well-liked by certain people in this community and at the leadership level. Maria Elvira Salazar, for example, another one of the representatives - Cuban American representatives here - has said on a couple of occasions that, you know, don't count me in if this is the model. But yet it appears that that is the model. There is a Delcy model for - we just don't know who the Delcy is in Cuba.
MARTIN: That is Professor Eduardo Gamarra. He directs the Latino Public Opinion Forum at Florida International University. Professor Gamarra, thanks so much for talking with us. I do hope we'll talk again.
GAMARRA: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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