For Dr. Manoj Jain, the unrelenting increase in Shelby County’s COVID-19 cases has a straightforward consequence: more deaths.
Since March, more than 800 people locally have died from complications of the virus. An additional almost 1,000 could die in the next two months, according to new modeling from Jain and the University of Tennessee Health Science Center, which assumes a 1.35 percent death rate and an upward-trending infection rate.
Shelby County soon could be on track to see 16 COVID-related deaths daily.
It doesn’t have to be that way, says Jain, an infectious disease advisor to the City of Memphis.
“If we take aggressive measures now, we can make an impact,” he said during a press conference Tuesday.
Those measures include more public health restrictions and requiring business closures. Jain says the newesthealth directive, which takes effect Saturday and requires restaurants and retailers to drop their capacity, is a step in the right direction. The altered “Safer at Home” order strongly discourages onsite dining and asks residents to stay at home as much as possible for the next month.
In the UTHSC model’s best-case scenario, in which transmission falls back to levels experienced prior to the fall surge, about 550 fewer people could die.
If the number of cases continue to climb, as they did after families came together for Thanksgiving, hospitals across the state could be pushed beyond their limits, or “break” as State Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey recently put it.
At Tuesday’s health department briefing, Dr. Reginald Coopwood, the CEO of Regional One Health said he’s never experienced anything like that.
“We have seen videos in New York and other cities where patients are treated in the hallway, patients are treated in every available space,” he said, referencing the crisis New York City hospitals faced in the spring at the onset of the pandemic. “We potentially could place the regional health systems in that type of scenario, and that’s not good for anybody.”
Coopwood also announced an initiative called the "Pay It Forward Mid-South" fund, which is accepting donations through the end of January. They go towards organizations that are offering assistance to workers in the hospitality and service industry, who will be financially hurt as result of new health restrictions.
“There are individuals in our community who are suffering because of the long-term effects of COVID-19, as well as these new measures that were put in place,” he said, noting that several major area hospitals, including his, have already donated to the campaign.