After Tennessee's first confirmed case of the Coronavirus was announced on Thursday in Williamson County (south of Nashville), Memphis health officials are on the alert in the event the virus appears here.
But Dr. Scott Strome, executive dean at the University of Tennessee Health Science Center (UTHSC), says talk of the contagion reaching Memphis is still speculative.
“The truth is that it’s really a guess,” Dr. Strome says. “There’s nobody who can provide a definitive answer about whether it will come to Memphis and if it comes to Memphis, the size of it.”
Despite uncertainty, Strome says a local outbreak is likely but that the Memphis-area health system is prepared. Shelby County health officials say they have protocols in place to quarantinepatients should someone contract the virus, and hospitals have established isolation rooms.
Still, Strome acknowledges the magnitude of an outbreak would determine the strain placed on health services: a slow, steady trickle of cases would be manageable, but if there’s a deluge and healthcare workers start getting sick, hospitals could quickly become overwhelmed.
“[It] would obviously be a worse case scenario and something that I don’t expect,” he says.
A disparity in access to healthcare in Memphis is also a concern should an outbreak occur—doctors fear the uninsured or impoverished might hesitate to seek medical attention if needed.
“I would encourage people... if they are feeling unwell... call their doctor or call the emergency room first,” Strome says. “The reason for that is so that we can prepare and advise patients where to come in for screening, etc.”
Shelby County Schools (SCS) says it is following the guidance of the Health Department and prioritizing uniform cleaning procedures for buildings across the district. Schools across the country are anticipating a need for heightened vigilance after students return from travel during Spring Break vacations. SCS's break begins March 16.
Like many experts, Strome implores people to remain calm and keep in mind that the mortality rate of the virus is still unknown and likely lower than what has been reported so far.
He adds that researchers at UTHSC are among those working to study the virus, though health officials say a vaccine is at least a year away.
“I think the community can have a sense of confidence that they have a group of healthcare professionals who are really ready and willing to deal with this crisis,” he says.