Shortly after this story aired in the early afternoon April 2, Gov. Bill Lee mandated a "Shelter-at-Home" order.
Tennessee hospitals could be inundated with COVID-19 patients in as little as three weeks, according to recent modeling, prompting doctors on the front lines to implore more government intervention.
Hospitalizations for COVID-19 are now doubling every three to four days, with about 10-20 percent destined for the ICU at Baptist Memorial Hospital in Memphis, according to Dr. Jeffery Wright. He’s medical director of critical care at the hospital and says despite hospital staff viewing the local epidemic as a sense of duty, they’re still concerned.
“Certainly, there is a great deal of anxiety because we do know that there’s a real risk with this disease,” he says.
Wright, along with about 2,000 medical professionals in Tennesseeare demanding that Gov. Bill Lee issues a statewide shelter-in-place mandate. This week, the governor ordered non-essential businesses to close, encouraging people to stay home but not forcing them to comply.
Doctors say more stringent measures are needed quickly to prevent the anticipated wave of cases in the coming month.
“Perhaps people aren’t quite getting the message,” Wright says. “You need to be out for the essentials, not out for elective activity.”
Social distancing is meant to slow the spread of the disease so hospitals don’t run out of equipment such as ventilators and beds.
“The best way we can do that—to block transmission—is to really separate people from one another where people can be transmitting this virus asymptomatically,” says Dr. David Aronoff, director of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.
Cases in the state continue to rise dramatically—now at about 2,700, including over 600 in Shelby County. That’s despite the graduated measures favored by state officials, Aronoff notes.
One study predicts Tennessee hospitals will run out of beds and ventilators by April 19. Shelby County Health Director Alisa Haushalter has also said peak hospitalizations and deaths could hit in three to four weeks locally, though she encouragespeople to push that date off by taking social distancing seriously.
Aronoff says a well-enforced stay-at-home order statewide could stem the tide.
“We like to have faith that people will do the right thing, but sometimes we don’t always,” he says. “Playgrounds can look awful tempting on a sunny day, and it can be very tempting to go on group excursions or play sports together.”
Mayor Jim Strickland this week shut down some city streets to limit access to parks after crowds gathered over the weekend. County officials have threatened non-essential businesses with misdemeanor citations for not closing down.
“It is necessary that we move in this direction because our numbers are climbing,” said Shelby County health officer Bruce Randolph at a press conference Tuesday. “Nationally, we are expected to have anywhere between 100,000 or more deaths.”
Memphis, Shelby County and the health department have allissued similar “safer-at-home” directives.