AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The Biden administration says North Korea has sent several thousand troops to Russia that may eventually be deployed to the front lines against Ukraine. It's widely seen as a provocation to the West, but it's also a bit of a mystery. Why would Russia rely on a country with an economy that's a small fraction of the size of its own? Victor Cha joins us now to answer. He's a Georgetown University professor of government and the former director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council. Welcome back to the program.
VICTOR CHA: Thank you, Ayesha. It's good to be with you.
RASCOE: South Korea, Ukraine and now the U.S. have all said North Korea is sending troops to Russia. But Pyongyang on Friday denied that's the case. Who do you believe?
CHA: Well, the North Koreans are lying. I mean, very clearly, the troops are there. So it's a very important reflection of how desperate Putin is, but at the same time, North Korea has a 1.2-million-man army. It's got millions of rounds of ammunition which it has given to Putin. So they are an important supporter of the war right now for Putin.
RASCOE: The poverty rate in North Korea is estimated to be as high as 60%. How can a country that poor be of help to Russia, even with the million-person military? A lot of these soldiers aren't very well-fed, right?
CHA: Yeah, they aren't very well-fed. We don't know exactly which ones are going. If it's their commandos, their special forces, those would be better trained, better-fed, but still, you know, not in very good shape. Domestically, it's important for Russia. It means that - or it allows them to delay doing a second mobilization of their own country, of their own youth, which is domestically unpopular. On the battlefield, it may not make that much of a difference, 'cause it's less than 1% of Russia's total deployment of forces. But it's symbolically very important. It means that North Korea is all-in with Russia. It's the ultimate sign of the treaty commitment, the treaty alliance that was signed last June between the two sides. And it means that they are now the No. 1 supporter of Russia's aggression in Europe.
RASCOE: But what does Kim Jong Un hope to get from this? And does he hope to give his troops more battlefield experience?
CHA: Sure. I certainly think that's part of it. Battlefield experience is important. North Korean forces are not well-trained. They're short of fuel. They don't have equipment. So that will certainly be an important part of it. But the other is they're hoping to get cash. I'm almost certain that they're looking for that food and fuel.
The real concern is whether they're going to exact a higher price in terms of military technology. This is a very transactional relationship. Kim knows Putin needs his help, and he may ask for a higher-end technology that is threatening to the United States, in terms of ballistic missiles or submarines.
RASCOE: South Korea is now considering sending arms - and reportedly even intelligence personnel - to Ukraine. Why does South Korea feel threatened by North Korea's deployment to Ukraine?
CHA: The South Koreans have been supporting the Ukrainians with a lot of economic and humanitarian support. Indirectly, they provided some military support through Poland, through the United States. But I just think the South Korean president is outraged at what North Korea is doing. And I don't think they're going to continue status quo. I think they will up their commitments to Ukraine - exactly how is unclear. But he, you know, sees this as a real affront to freedom and democracy, this aggression against Ukraine in the middle of Europe. And then the North Korean involvement, I think he takes very personally. So I would expect to see the South Koreans doing more, either in the context of NATO or directly with Ukraine.
RASCOE: That's Georgetown Professor Victor Cha, also president of the geopolitics and foreign policy department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. His new book is "The Black Box: Demystifying The Study Of Korean Unification And North Korea." Thank you so much for being with us.
CHA: Thank you, Ayesha. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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