A potentially historic winter storm is expected to impact the Mid-South beginning Friday afternoon, bringing a prolonged period of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and dangerously cold temperatures, according to the National Weather Service in Memphis.
Weather forecasters predict that wintry precipitation may start as early as Friday afternoon and continue through Sunday afternoon. Additionally, lingering effects are expected into the following week as bitterly cold temperatures settle over the region. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued, effective from noon on Friday until 6 p.m. on Sunday. This watch covers much of West Tennessee, North Mississippi, East Arkansas, and Southeast Missouri.
The National Weather Service reports a high level of confidence that the region will experience accumulating winter precipitation. However, there is still some uncertainty about the specific locations where transitions between snow, sleet, and freezing rain will occur, as well as the expected accumulation in each area. Forecast maps place Memphis near the northern edge of a transition zone, where precipitation types could shift between snow, sleet, and freezing rain with small shifts in temperature.
Probabilistic forecasts indicate a moderate to high likelihood of significant ice accumulation in parts of North Mississippi and the southern Mid-South. Some areas have a 40 to 60 percent chance of receiving at least a quarter inch of ice by Sunday evening. This amount can create hazardous travel conditions, down trees, and cause power outages. In areas where ice accumulation exceeds a quarter inch, roadways may become impassable, and travel is strongly discouraged.
North of the transition zone, snow and sleet are expected to be the primary precipitation types. Forecast models indicate a high likelihood of at least three inches of snow across much of the region, with a moderate chance of six inches or more in the northern areas. Accumulation of snow and sleet on roadways is expected to create hazardous travel conditions, especially during and immediately after the storm.
The National Weather Service’s Winter Storm Severity Index shows moderate overall impacts across the Mid-South. These impacts include hazardous road conditions, infrastructure strain, and potential power disruptions, particularly in areas affected by ice. Officials warn that these issues could worsen rapidly if ice accumulations exceed current forecasts.
In addition to precipitation, the storm will bring a prolonged period of arctic air. Temperatures are expected to drop below freezing on Friday evening and remain there for at least 72 hours. Wind chills are forecasted to fall into the single digits and below zero at times from Friday night through Sunday, increasing the risk of frostbite and hypothermia.
Weather forecasters warn that the severe cold may hinder recovery efforts following the storm, especially if power outages happen. Temperatures below freezing are expected to last at least until the middle of next week.
Residents are urged to prepare now by limiting travel when possible, monitoring updated forecasts, and taking precautions to protect people, pets, and pipes from the cold. The National Weather Service emphasizes that forecast confidence is high regarding impacts, even as details about exact precipitation types and amounts continue to be refined.
Forecast updates are expected as the storm approaches. The latest information is available from the National Weather Service at weather.gov/meg
Power outages can be monitored at wknofm.org/outage. Outages should be reported directly to the MLGW Outage Hotline at (901) 544-6500.